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GDP outturns for the second quarter surprised on the upside in China (where, after lockdowns eased in early April, public investment helped boost activity to return to positive growth in the second quarter) and the United States and euro area (where both economies contracted at a historic pace in the second quarter, but less severely than projected, with government transfers supporting household incomes). As economies reopened and released constraints on spending, overall activity normalized faster than anticipated in the June 2020 WEO Update. Second quarter GDP outturns, on balance, delivered positive surprises. Firms, however, remained cautious in responding to this revival: industrial production in many countries is still well below December levels. The strengthening from the trough in April was most evident, not surprisingly, in retail sales, where discretionary consumer spending rose with reopening ( Figure 1.1). While the swift recovery in China has surprised on the upside, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.Īctivity picked up in May and June as economies reopened. But with the pandemic spreading and accelerating in places, many countries slowed reopening, and some are reinstating partial lockdowns. During May and June, as many economies tentatively reopened from the Great Lockdown, the global economy started to climb from the depths to which it had plunged in April.
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The months after the release of the June 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update have offered a glimpse of how difficult rekindling economic activity will be while the pandemic surges. Global Economy Climbing Out of the Depths, Prone to Setbacks